To address the security challenges posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and the ballistic missiles used to deliver them, the Department of Defense is continuing to implement the new priorities established for ballistic missile defenses (BMD) outlined by the Bottom-Up Review (BUR). These priorities reflect the fact that the Cold War is over and the threat it posed to U.S. security has been replaced by the requirement to prepare for major regional conflicts against adversaries armed with advanced conventional and unconventional weaponry. The dangers posed by proliferation require a major emphasis on developing and rapidly deploying theater missile defenses (TMD) to protect forces operating in regional conflicts and U.S. allies, while also ensuring the ability to develop a national missile defense capability which could be deployed to respond to future threats to the United States.
BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE IN U.S. DEFENSE STRATEGY
The U.S. objectives for missile defense include protection of forward-deployed U.S. and allied forces and population centers against adversaries armed with theater ballistic missiles (TBM), and the strengthening of U.S. security relationships with allies. In addition, missile defense supports broader efforts to discourage the proliferation of ballistic missile technologies and WMD. Effective missile defense can reduce incentives for proliferators to develop, acquire, or use ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. Defensive systems reduce the value of offensive missiles by destroying attacking missiles, thus helping to deny accomplishment of a belligerent's objectives. Furthermore, the ability to extend protection to allies and friends in a region can have a significant effect toward mitigating their desire to produce WMD systems as a deterrent against hostile nations and can encourage willingness to act conventionally with the United States in any conflict. Ballistic missile defenses, together with U.S. conventional and nuclear capabilities, also strengthen deterrence by dampening incentives to escalate and preserving U.S. freedom of action.
Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction
Weapons of mass destruction -- nuclear, biological, and chemical -- along with the ballistic missiles that deliver them, pose a major threat to U.S. security and that of U.S. allies and other friendly nations. Thus, a key part of the U.S. strategy is to stem the proliferation of such weapons and to develop an effective capability to deter, prevent, and defend against their use.
Currently, more than 25 countries possess or are developing nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons, and more than 15 nations have ballistic missiles. This situation is exacerbated by the continuing spread of sensitive technologies that contribute to the development and improvement of ballistic missiles. Controlling this spread is a critical part of U.S. defense strategy as ballistic missile technology is widely available and traded on an international scale. North Korea's development of two new ballistic missiles, the Taepo Dong I and II, is further indication of the growing proliferation of such weapons.
The combination of WMD with theater ballistic missiles poses a unique threat to managing future regional crises. An aggressor state may in the future seek to limit U.S. freedom of action in providing conventional military aid to an ally or friend by simply threatening a missile strike. The threat of a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack may intimidate a neighboring nation, thereby discouraging it from seeking U.S. protection or participating with the United States in the formation of a defensive coalition. Hostile states possessing theater ballistic missiles armed with WMD may be able to threaten or use these weapons in an attempt to deter or otherwise constrain U.S. ability to project military forces to meet commitments abroad and achieve national security objectives. With WMD, even small-scale theater ballistic missile threats would raise dramatically the potential costs and risks of military operations, undermining conventional superiority and threatening the credibility of U.S. regional security strategy. U.S. forces, once deployed, must have TMD capabilities to deal effectively with these threats.
Major Regional Conflicts
The focus of U.S. planning for major theater conflicts is on deterring and, if necessary, fighting and defeating aggression by potentially hostile regional powers. The threat of the use of ballistic missiles in regional conflict has grown enormously over the past two decades, and brings to the forefront the political and military value of ballistic missile defenses. Ballistic missiles have been used in six regional conflicts since 1973 -- the most recent of which was the conflict between North and South Yemen involving Scud missiles armed with conventional warheads. Ballistic missiles are clearly becoming a common battlefield weapon. The 1988 Iran-Iraq War of the Cities, Operation Desert Storm, and the recent conflict in Yemen have demonstrated the capability of ballistic missiles to threaten military forces and civilian population centers.
Ballistic missile defenses can contribute to U.S. military strategy for major regional conflicts in a number of critical ways. During Operation Desert Storm, several important lessons were learned about the value of TMD.
Giventhese realities, a U.S. missile defense capability is required to protect forward-deployed U.S. and allied forces in order for those forces to operate effectively in the face of ballistic missile threats.
FORCE STRUCTURE AND CAPABILITIES -- FOCUS ON TMD
BMD Priorities
The Department's first priority is to develop, procure, and deploy TMD systems to protect forward-deployed and expeditionary elements of the U.S. armed forces as well as friends and allies of the United States. This plan envisions the time-phased acquisition of a multi-tier defensive capability. The first phase consists of near-term improvements to existing systems using low-cost, low-risk, and quick-reaction programs, while simultaneously refining concepts of operation and tactics. The second phase expands current terminal ballistic missile defenses. This capability consists of land-based defenses to protect critical assets and to provide theater-wide protection, and sea-based capability to protect U.S. and friendly forces in coastal areas. This capability also provides improved lethality and probability of kill through the use of hit-to-kill interceptors and engagement opportunities at both lower altitudes and shorter ranges (lower-tier intercepts within the atmosphere), and at higher altitudes and longer ranges (upper tier, exo-atmospheric intercepts). In the final phase, advanced concepts for TMD will be developed. These may include the additional capability to intercept theater ballistic missiles in the boost and midcourse phases of flight.
As a secondary priority of missile defense, the National Missile Defense (NMD) technology readiness program is to provide a hedge against the emergence of a long range ballistic missile threat to the United States. While no longer an acquisition program, NMD is focused on achieving technical readiness of the elements that would comprise a system. The objective of the NMD program is to develop and maintain the option to deploy a cost effective, ground-based antiballistic missile defense capability for the United States against limited attacks of ballistic missiles. Efforts also address ways to reduce the lead time for such a contingency deployment. A key feature of the program is that as technical progress is achieved, an early contingency deployment capability becomes available against simple threats, on the path to the objective NMD capability.
The third priority is an Advanced Technology program to provide technology options for improvements to planned and deployed defenses. The program will invest in high leverage technologies that yield improved capabilities for TMD interceptors and sensors. The improvements will focus on responding to potential developments in the deployment of countermeasures on theater ballistic missiles and the use of advanced submunitions in ballistic missile warheads. The program will also take advantage of the lessons learned from operational experience.
TMD Missions
The TMD mission is composed of four pillars: attack operations; active defense; passive defense; and battle management/command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence (BM/C4I). Of these four pillars the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization's TMD program focuses on active defense and associated BM/C4I. Active defense can be defined as the intercept and destruction of hostile missiles during any phase of flight. BM/C4I is the horizontal and vertical integration of TMD systems into the theater BM/C4I architecture.
TMD -- Active Defense Programs
The BUR confirmed the need for a core theater missile defense effort consisting of the Patriot Advanced Capability Level-3 (PAC-3), the Navy Area TMD, theater high altitude area defense (THAAD), as well as research into advanced concepts programs. The TMD program is structured to put capability into the field quickly by upgrading existing TMD systems while developing more advanced TMD capability.
PATRIOT ADVANCED CAPABILITY LEVEL-3
The Patriot PAC-2 missile was used against modified Iraqi Scud missiles during the Gulf War. The Patriot Missile System is being upgraded to the PAC-3 configuration to include a new missile, remote launch, communications and computer/software improvements, and radar upgrades to enhance system performance by improving its multifunction capability; acquisition, tracking handling capability; and performance against advanced threats.
The Extended Range Interceptor (ERINT), using hit-to-kill technology, was judged to have the best performance against WMD and, as a result, was selected as the PAC-3 missile. Efforts now focus on completing the radar and remote launch enhancements to the system, completing initial work on Patriot/ERINT integration, and initiating PAC-3 missile engineering and manufacturing development.
THE AEGIS/STANDARD MISSILE BLOCK IVA
The Navy currently deploys many cruisers and a growing number of destroyers equipped with Aegis Weapons System and standard missiles for air defense operations. The Block IVA program capitalizes on this existing infrastructure by fielding upgraded standard missiles and software modifications to the existing Aegis Weapons System to provide a sea-based TMD capability and improved performance against antiship cruise missiles. A naval TMD capability could be placed in the vicinity of a potential regional conflict in littoral regions, providing protection for land-based targets before or after hostilities break out, or before land-based defenses could be transported to the theater. The sea-based capability will also provide protection for amphibious objective areas and expeditionary forces as they are inserted ashore.
THEATER HIGH ALTITUDE AREA DEFENSE SYSTEM
The THAAD system consists of two separate but mutually supporting programs -- the THAAD weapon system and the TMD-GBR (Ground Based Radar) surveillance and fire control radar system. The THAAD system comprises the upper tier of a two-tiered, ground-based defense against TBMs. This system will provide broad surveillance and a large intercept envelope to defeat theater ballistic missile threats directed against wide areas, dispersed assets, and strategic assets such as population centers and industrial facilities. THAAD will engage at high altitudes to minimize damage caused by debris and chemical, biological, and nuclear munitions. The combination of high-altitude and long-range intercept capability provides multiple engagement (shoot-look-shoot) opportunities.
ADVANCED CONCEPTS PROGRAMS
The advanced concepts are those potential programs that complement and expand the capabilities of the core programs. Currently, three programs are being considered under advanced concepts -- Corps Surface-to-Air-Missile (SAM), Sea-based Theater-wide Defense, and Boost Phase Intercept (BPI). Corps SAM would provide an easily deployable defense for highly mobile land forces. Sea-based Theater-wide Defense would capitalize on the Aegis infrastructure to provide a capability to defeat long-range TBM threats without the need for forward basing. BPI would counter advanced threats by engaging TBMs early in flight over enemy territory.
TMD COOPERATION WITH ALLIES AND FRIENDS
As part of the broader efforts to enhance the security of U.S. and allied forces against ballistic missile strikes and to complement counterproliferation strategy, the United States is exploring opportunities for cooperation with its allies and friends in the area of TMD.
The U.S. approach to allied participation in research, development, and acquisition of ballistic missile defense has evolved as the ballistic missile defense program has changed. Cooperation started as a concerted effort on the part of the United States to consult friends and allies regarding the direction of U.S. initiatives. Consultation evolved into active participation in technology development and, most recently, cooperation has started to focus on development of interoperable theater missile defense systems. The latest stage of cooperation results from DoD giving high priority to armaments cooperation, thereby providing impetus to the process of involving allies and friends in BMD programs.
The international community increasingly recognizes the existence and growth of the threat of ballistic missile attack and, as a consequence, commitments to TMD development efforts by friends and allies have been growing. The United States has established several working groups to explore the possibility of cooperation in the area of TMD. To capitalize on the interest in TMD cooperation shown by many allies, the United States is taking an evolutionary and tailored approach to allied cooperation in order to accommodate varying national programs and plans, as well as the special capabilities of particular nations. The approach may include a menu of items such as bilateral or multilateral research and development, improvements to current missile capabilities, off-the-shelf purchases, and more robust participation such as codevelopment and coproduction programs. All of these activities will ensure interoperability of missile defense systems while avoiding costly duplication.
In the U.S. view, cooperation in TMD, in whatever form it takes, will help strengthen security relationships with allies, enhance the counterproliferation strategy of discouraging acquisition and use of ballistic missiles and, should that fail, protect against the threats posed by such systems.
ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE TREATY
During the past year, the Administration has pursued an agreement providing for the succession to the USSR as parties to the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty by any New Independent States and an agreement clarifying the distinction between ABM systems, which are limited by the Treaty, and non-ABM systems, which are not. These two agreements are being pursued in the Standing Consultative Commission with the participation of the likely NIS successor states as well as Russia. An agreement on succession will make clear the Treaty parties and their responsibilities. An agreement that clarifies the distinction between ABM and other ballistic missile defense systems will help to ensure the continued viability and effectiveness of the Treaty as the United States pursues development and deployment of effective TMD systems for the protection of its forces overseas, allies, and friends.
The U.S. ballistic missile defense program is directed toward the development of TMD, which is a critical component of a national security strategy that focuses on regional crises and proliferation. TMD contributes to crisis management by preserving U.S. freedom of action, dissuading regional powers from initiating or escalating conflict, and stabilizing coalitions. Effective TMD also contributes to counterproliferation by reducing the incentives for regional powers to develop or acquire WMD and ballistic missiles. TMD can protect when, despite comprehensive nonproliferation efforts, U.S. forces and allies face future opponents armed with ballistic missiles. The overall BMD program -- deploying TMD to defeat the most pressing theater ballistic missile threats plus a limited national missile defense technology program -- is the best approach to rapidly achieving an effective TMD capability while hedging against long-term threats to the United States.
